Participants in MISMS Europe in Vilamoura, Portugal

Participants in MISMS Europe in Vilamoura, Portugal


MISMS 3rd Regional Meeting and Workshop following the 3rd European Influenza Conference (Vilamoura – Portugal)

The objectives of the regional meeting and workshop are as follows:

1) To review the epidemiology of influenza in temperate and tropical climates and outline the achievements of MISMS through presentations of influenza mortality models, transmission dynamics research, genomic studies, and vaccination impact studies.
2) To demonstrate the utility of secondary source data to study the epidemiology of influenza.
3) To work with current collaborators and establish new collaborations for bi-national and multinational studies.
4) To communicate findings to the scientific community and policy makers.
5) To analyze data during a hands-on workshop on methodologies for influenza studies, including time-series statistical analysis, vaccine effectiveness, molecular epidemiology and genomics.

Day I- General Meeting (September 17th, 2008)


Session I. Welcome (2:00-2:25pm)

2:00-2:25  Overview of MISMS: goals and achievement (Mark A. Miller, MD, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, USA)

Session II. Influenza Epidemiology (2:25-4:30pm)


2:25-2:50 Seasonality of influenza in the Tropics (Wladimir J. Alonso, PhD, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, USA and Wyller A. de Mello, PhD Evandro Chagas Institute / WHO/ Ministry of Health, Brazil )


2:50-3:15  The 1918-19 pandemic in Denmark: implications for pandemic preparedness (Lone Simonsen, PhD, George Washington University, USA)


3:15-3:40 Influenza mortality burden and vaccination policy in Italy (Caterina Rizzo, MD, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, CNESPS, Infectious Disease Unit Viale Regina Elena, Italy)


3:40-4:05 Multinational studies of epidemic and pandemic influenza (Cécile Viboud, PhD, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, USA)


4:05-4:30 Coffee break


Session III. Evolutionary dynamics of human and avian influenza (4:30-5:45pm)

4:30-4:55  An overview of the evolutionary dynamics of human influenza A (Martha
Nelson, PhD, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania
State University & Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health,


4:55-5:20  Influenza antigenic and genetic evolution (Colin Russell, PhD,
University of Cambridge, United Kingdom)


5:20-5:45 Molecular epidemiology of higlhy pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza
in Africa (Giovanni Cattoli, DVM, PhD, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale
delle Venezie, FAO/OIE and National Reference Laboratory for
Newcastle Disease and Avian Influenza, Italy)


Day II (September 18th, 2008): Introductory Workshop

Session IV. Methodologies, Techniques and Case studies (9:00 – 11:35)

9:00-9:25 Methodological issues with Burden of Disease Models (Cecile Viboud, PhD, Fogarty
International Center, National Institutes of Health, and Lone
Simonsen, George Washington University, USA)

9:25-9:50  Some techniques for time-series analysis of influenza based on vital
statistics (Wladimir Alonso, Fogarty International Center, National
Institutes of Health, USA)

9:50-10:15 Phylogenetics 101 (Martha Nelson, PhD, Fogarty International Center,
National Institutes of Health, USA)

10:00-10:45 Coffee break

10:45-11:10  Seasonal Influenza Modeling in the US (David Shay, MD, MPH, Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention, USA)

11:10-11:35  European Monitoring of Excess Mortality for Public Heath Action
(Bernadette Gergonne, Epilife, Sweden)

Day III (September 19th, 2008): Advanced Workshop

Session V. Modeling

9:00-9:20  A Comprehensive Influenza Modeling Theory and Its Applications (Steven
Zhou, MSc. MPhil., BSc., British Columbia Institute of Technology,

Day II-IV (September 18th-20th, 2008):


for epidemiologists and virologists led by the US National
Institutes of Health, Fogarty International Center

Following the meeting, a workshop describing the methodology to
evaluate vital statistics, virological, genomic and economic
data to describe influenza disease burden and inform policy
will be held. All are invited to attend the first half
day session which will follow the presentation portion
of the meeting.

The remaining two and a half days will consist of workshops
designed for epidemiologists/virologists and policy-makers
who are interested in evaluating datasets which may be
brought to the meeting for further analysis. Workshops
will concentrate on methodologies to evaluate time-series
data for regional or national analysis of influenza disease
burden, assessments of control, and evolution of influenza
viruses. Participants will have the opportunity to learn
and apply tools to analyze national datasets and formulate
further collaborations on bi-national and multinational
studies. Please note that participation in the Thursday
PM, Friday and Saturday workshop sessions will be limited.
Participation will be by invitation only and any request
for invitation (via email) should include a description
of available datasets that participants wish to further

It is highly recommended, but not required, that participants
in the workshop bring:
– a laptop with some type of statistical software (SAS
– an influenza dataset (vital statistics data, influenza
isolates sequences and/or data, and vaccine coverage)

who attend the workshop will have the opportunity to learn
– time series analysis
– spatial / temporal relationships
– influenza genomics tools
– data management issues
– SAS / Stata code – go home with your own programs
– strategies for evaluating vaccine benefits in a country
using mortality data
– and more

The MISMS protocol is available upon request. Interested individuals
who do not have a laptop, statistical software, and/or
influenza datasets are encouraged to contact Fogarty International
Center to discuss the available options.